Wednesday, February 06, 2008

The Great Horse Race (contd.)

From the National Affairs Desk
an analysis

Super Tuesday has come and gone and the presidential picture looks no clearer than it did two days ago. It's too early to judge the effect of the mega-primary on the odds line, but one thing worth noting is that just days before Tuesday, McCain moved into second in the odds with 2-1; exactly where I said his odds should be a week and a half ago. This illustrates once again the awesome influence and prediction powers of the intrepid OrGiveMeDeath.
It's too soon to make any legitimate predictions for the fall, but I see an interesting scenario playing out in which this election could parallel the last election without an incumbent or a Vice President in the race. With McCain widening his lead and Huckabee keeping Romney at bay, the potential for this de facto partnership to turn into a McCain/Huckabee ticket is plausible if not likely. McCain is not exactly the darling of the Religious Right or Southern base of the GOP, a Huckabee veep spot could potentially unite the party. Interestingly enough (barely enough and probably only to me), this ticket would resemble the Eisenhower/Nixon ticket of 1952. McCain arguably represents the return of the Northeastern Eisenhower/Rockefeller Republicans, as evidenced by his more moderate views, his support from Giuliani & Schwarzenegger and his strong showing in the Northeast. An even thinner parallel could be drawn between Eisenhower's disagreements with Robert A. Taft's isolationism and McCain's own feud with Ron Paul. The Huckabee/Nixon parallels are a little harder to draw, but running him as VP definitely makes political sense, plus they kinda look alike.
On the other side I still think we'll see a Clinton ticket. The parallels between her and two-time Eisenhower opponent Adlai Stevenson are so obvious to even the casual observer that they need not be stated here. She's clearly the standard bearer of the Liberal Democrat Party and an egghead technocrat that turns off middle America. If the ticket shapes out to be Clinton/Obama, experts will probably be less likely to draw parallels between Obama and Stevenson's running mate John Sparkman, a Southern Conservative Democrat from Alabama. However, if Obama's the nominee, him and Stevenson were both Illinois politicians so my theory remains intact.
In any event, this election continues to be very boring overall and I remain resolute in my disappointment in the field. My interest is purely sporting.

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